With the resumption of pig production nationwide and the gradual improvement of pork supply, pigs and pork prices have fallen significantly recently, faster than market expectations. Since June, pig farming links into an overall loss.

Monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed that in June, pig farmers earned 2,056 yuan in sales per pig, with a total breeding cost of 2,185 yuan and a loss of 129 yuan for each commercial pig sold. Sustained loss has made partial enterprises face greater capital pressure. Listed Zhengbang Technology expects a first-half loss of 1.2 billion yuan to 1.45 billion yuan, while New Hope expects a loss of 3 billion yuan.

An official from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said that in recent years, pork prices have fallen rapidly, pig breeding has suffered losses, and farmers' enthusiasm for development and production has been frustrated. Policies on land use, environmental protection and insurance, which were welcomed by farmers and introduced in 2019, have been tightened, and some local governments have made "sharp turns" on policies. It may further magnify the impact of the market recession and cause a sharp decline in production capacity again. In addition to the rising cost of breeding and the uncertainty of the African Swine fever epidemic, the task of stabilizing pig production and ensuring market supply is very difficult.

According to the recovery of production capacity and the growth and fattening cycle of pigs, pig prices are expected to rebound before the end of this year, but the range is not too high. According to the pattern of the past, pig prices usually show a seasonal rebound before the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day. In addition, from January to February this year, the rise of blue-ear disease, piglet epidemic diarrhea and other outbreaks led to a cumulative decline of more than 10% in the number of newborn healthy piglets in large-scale farms across the country. During this period, the newly born piglets, corresponding to the market time point, just before the Mid-Autumn Festival and The National Day, also good pig price correction. But as a result of the current market overstocked imports frozen pork magnitude is not small, inhibit pig prices rise.

To deal with the phased downward trend of pork prices, farmers should first do, is to reduce costs and increase efficiency, reduce losses. Feed conversion efficiency was improved by optimizing feeding methods and fine management. Speed up the elimination of three yuan commercial sows and some low-yielding binary sows left in the early stage to improve the reproductive capacity of fertile sows; Strengthen feeding management, effectively prevent animal disease, reduce death loss.

In addition, from past experience, in the industry trough, animal disease prevention and control must not be relaxed. Looking back at the large fluctuations of the pig industry in the past several rounds, when the pig price was relatively low, farmers would relax in disease prevention and control, and this time point was also a period with high risk of disease. At present, African swine fever virus (ASF) has colonized in China and polluted widely. New strains with long incubation periods also emerged around the Spring Festival this year, which are difficult to detect in the short term. At the same time, blue ear disease and epidemic diarrhea of piglets have occurred from time to time, and the situation of disease prevention and control is grim and complex. Therefore, it is necessary to remind farmers that they must not relax the prevention and control, especially in the northern winter and southern rainy season. Once a major epidemic occurs, it may cause heavy losses.

The CPC Central Committee and The State Council attach great importance to pig production and pork supply, which are related to people's lives, price stability and increase of farmers' income. In recent years, the CPC Central Committee and The State Council have gradually established mature counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical regulation mechanisms through the establishment of long-term mechanisms and stable long-term support policies, so as to ensure the stability of production capacity within a reasonable range.

Agricultural NongCunBu at the end of 2019 issued by the three years to speed up the development of production of live pigs "action plan", clear the provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the refinement and promised three years to restore production of live pigs mission objectives, and the pressure is actually realized the governments at all levels, around the enthusiasm obviously increase the production of live pigs, such as land use, environmental protection has long vexed to effectively solve the problem of pig industry. This approach provides good experience and inspiration for the rapid recovery of pig production capacity, which can be well summarized and fully used in the future work.

Long-term mechanisms are being explored to maintain pig price stability. The key to stable price lies in stable production, which needs stable production capacity, and the important way to ensure stable breeding sows stock is to stabilize employees' expectations from the policy. It is understood that the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is starting to formulate the implementation plan of pig production capacity regulation, provincial clear breeding sow stock and large-scale farm household ownership and other core indicators, and issued assessment methods. Local governments are required to make detailed plans in accordance with task indexes, steadily implement long-term support policies such as fiscal, financial, land use and environmental protection, and gradually establish a market-oriented regulation mechanism to prevent "sharp turns" and "turning over pancake", so that breeding subjects have stable policy expectations. At the same time, farmers in areas with serious losses should timely introduce temporary relief subsidies, loan interest subsidies and other policies to help breeding subjects tide over difficulties and ensure that the number of breeding sows remains in a reasonable range.

At present, the scale level of pig breeding in China is still low. By the end of last year, the annual pig output of more than 500 farmers accounted for about 57% of the total pig output in China, and still about 43% of the market supply was provided by small farmers. Compared with large-scale breeding farms, there is still a big gap in technology, operation and management, market risk resistance and major disease prevention and control for small scale farmers. In the future, to promote the high-quality development of the pig industry, it is necessary to integrate small farmers into the process of agricultural modernization as soon as possible and improve the level of large-scale organization. It is suggested to give full play to the leading and exemplary role of leading enterprises, improve the interest connection mechanism of industrial chain and improve the level of industrial organization by means of "companies + farmers" and trusteeship and leasing. At the same time, through the establishment of industry associations, professional pig breeding cooperatives and other ways, the small and scattered farmers together, sharing advanced breeding technology, unified feed raw material procurement and management, mutual help and common development.